IPCC report provides some hope

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Synthesis Report earlier this month. Drawing together the findings from a series of IPCC reports published over the past 18 months the Synthesis Report aims to provide a clear summation of the latest scientific assessment on climate change.

It was no surprise to see a re-iteration of the warning we will fail to limit global warming to 1.5C this century. The report stated: “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”

But that opportunity does still exist, and there was guarded optimism alongside the warnings. Most positive was the IPCC’s view that while the challenge is enormous mankind already has the technologies available to decarbonise in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement Goals to effectively halve emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

So, this is good news, as long as the political will is there to help drive faster action across economies and industry sectors.

Perhaps the most significant area for optimism is the fast-growth of the renewable energy sector. Nations around the globe are upping investment in solar, wind, tidal and hydro power, and as result the cost of these technologies is falling rapidly. This creates a virtuous circle where more adoption adds scale, creates even lower prices, drives more adoption etc. Adding generation capacity through renewables like wind and solar is now cheaper than through fossil fuels schemes so this trend looks set to continue.

Related to this greening of our energy generation systems is the de-carbonisation of transport through EVs and other technologies e.g. hydrogen for heavy goods vehicles, and trains. Here it is again falling costs that are driving change. As electric vehicles become cheaper due to battery costs falling adoption is accelerating. Aligned with regulation and government action making sure the charging infrastructure keeps pace will see transport emissions falling too.

As the cost of photovoltaic (solar) technology drops there is also a benefit to increased energy efficiency of housing and other buildings. By introducing on-site generation, battery storage and low carbon heating systems like air or ground source heat pumps the built environment’s carbon intensity can also be reduced.

The challenge remain vast. However, there are signs that with government, business and civil society collaborating the response can pick-up rapidly.

Perhaps the best example of this is U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act which offers $369bln of tax breaks and subsidies to drive the development of energy security and green technologies in the U.S. Passed into law in August 2022 it has already prompted a surge in green inward investment into the U.S. for example BMW’s decision to invest $1.7bln in a Carolina plant for EV manufacture. This bold industrial strategy from Biden has prompted the EU to respond with its own Green Deal Industrial Plan, offering similar incentives to prevent a drain of green investment to the U.S.

The next eight years to 2030 are crucial to accelerate carbon reduction and address the consequences of climate change. As the Synthesis Report states, “The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years.”

Let’s continue to make the right choices for a positive impact.